TESTSIDA LENA

The National Board of Trade Sweden has simulated the effects of the new tariffs introduced by the United States and other countries since the end of 2024. The results show that these tariffs have a negative impact on global trade – and that the United States itself is the most affected.

What is this analysis about?

We simulated three different scenarios to analyse how changes in tariff levels affect world trade and the global economy. The main scenario reflects the tariff levels currently in effect, including the trade agreement between the EU and the United States from August 2025 (the Turnberry Agreement). The other two scenarios represent a milder and a more escalated situation with even higher tariffs. We set out to evaluate how these changes affect different countries and sectors, and their impact on GDP, exports and imports.
Is there anything that stands out?
The most striking finding – though not entirely unexpected – is that the United States feels the greatest trade effects. The country’s GDP falls by around 1–4 per cent in all three scenarios. The industries that the tariffs are meant to protect are among those most